Libicki: Cyber Deterrence Not All It’s Cracked Up To Be

My job this weekend is to read Martin Libicki’s new RAND report, Cyberdeterrence and Cyberwar. In the meantime, Angela Moscaritolo of SC Magazine has spoken to Libicki and reports thus:

The United States shouldn’t place too much optimism in its ability to stop cyberattacks by threatening to launch them against its enemy.

That was one of the key findings of a report, “Cyberdetterance and Cyberwar,” released Thursday [ouch, spelling]. The report was prepared by nonprofit research group RAND Corp. and commissioned by the U.S. Air Force.

The 203-page report evaluates the merits of cyberdeterrence, a tactic defined by the study as having the capability to “do unto others what others may do unto us.” In other words, the report examines whether the United States should threaten to retaliate to cyberattacks as a means of deterring them.

“Cyberdeterrence seems like it would be a good idea,” Martin Libicki, senior management scientist with Rand and the report’s author, wrote. “Game theory supports the belief that it might work. The nuclear standoff between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War — which never went hot — provides the historical basis for believing cyberdeterrence should work.”

But Libicki argues that cyberwar presents unique challenges that hinder cyberdeterrence, such as the difficulty of knowing who attackers are, what damages they caused, and if they can repeat the attack.

“Hitting the wrong person back not only weakens the logic of deterrence…but makes a new enemy,” Libicki wrote. “Instead of facing one potential cyberwar, the defender may now face two.”

While deterrence may not be a viable strategy, the US military still must protect its networks and systems, which it uses to function, Libicki told SCMagazineUS.com on Thursday.

“The military has no choice but to assess the threats against it and protect its networks as well as it can,” he said. “They do have to be continually prepared.”

In the report, he suggested focusing on diplomatic, economic and prosecutorial efforts.

Read the rest here.

I haven’t got the time to respond to this today, and I haven’t read the report yet either. I broadly agree, and these are pretty much the conclusions I’ve come to during recent research on the topic.

[h/t InfoWar Monitor]