I’m All Forum

The last couple of days I’ve been having a bit of off-blog to-and-fro with Raffaello Pantucci of the International Institute for Strategic Studies on various internet and terrorism-related issues. Raff’s just pointed out an article in today’s Guardian, Cyber-attack theory as al-Qaida websites close, which won’t be a surprise to readers of Jihadica, Making Sense of Jihad, Arabic Media Shack, Internet Haganah or COMOPS Journal.

The Guardian article quotes Will McCants (Jihadica) and Aaron Weisburd (Internet Haganah), both of whom make solid and sensible points. [They also quote one Anne Hennesen (Stenersen, surely?) from the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment.]

The drift of the Guardian piece is that Western intelligence agencies might be responsible for the closure of the al-Ekhlaas, al-Boraq and al-Firdaws forums. This interpretation has always been on the cards, although I have no idea of the truth of the matter. All I can say is that no-one at my presentation in The Hague last week on ‘Disrupting Online Jihadi Networks: Covert and Overt Measures’ would say one way or the other what their respective national intelligence organisations are actually doing on this front. Judging by the number of people taking notes, I’d say none of them, ‘cos I’m no expert.

I would also say that forum takedowns are not something I’d ordinarily support, although it is an option. There is simply not enough proof of their efficacy, and too much intel to be gleaned from them (Update: Mike Tanji agrees). What’s weird in this case that they haven’t reappeared.

Like I said, I don’t know whether the forum closures are intel-led, the result of bickering within the community, a strategic move by jihadis, or part of this much-touted Sunni-Shi’a cyberwar. All I can do is refer to some excellent posts elsewhere on this issue:

Will McCants – Influence of Jihadi Forums

Rob Media Shack – If a Tree Falls in a Forest…

Aaron Weisburd – Portrait of Rats, Preparing to Drown

Marisa Urgo – Perhaps a Reason

Steve Corman – Did the Bad Guys Scuttle Their Own Forums?

And in case people haven’t done so, please subscribe to these folks, and track back through recent discussions on this issue.