ubiwar . conflict in n dimensions

Recently, Will McCants at Jihadica outlined how online recruitment actually works, concluding:

So here’s my basic model: Jihadi forums are good for creating and storing propaganda material.  Mainstream forums are where online recruitment, if any, is happening.  But even if the recruitment is effective, the recruits still need some face time with committed militants or other recruits to remain radicalized; ingesting more propaganda or joining Jihadi forums isn’t enough.

I responded positively to this assertion, adding:

Although the data is scarce in this field of analysis, all the signs point towards this model being basically sound. This does not mean that the internet is not significant in the radicalisation of people to violent causes, just that it is not the whole story. Cases that buck this model are very rare indeed.

Aaron Weisburd at Internet Haganah suggests that before we can determine how effective internet communications are in radicalisation/recruitment we need a methodology for measuring effectiveness. Unfortunately, we don’t seem to be able to do this easily. In thinking about this issue, Aaron outlines his theory of ‘differential jihadization’, which involves assessments of an individual’s Motivation, Association, and Opportunity.

This is a neat breakdown, separating this complex process into elements we might otherwise term Psychological, Social, and Operational. In non-academic language it also implies there are intervention points for counteracting this process.

Of course, this is not a strict continuum, but it’s a useful indication of the factors at work and interplay in the progress of an individual from a mere forum participant and wanna-be jihadi, to an active member of a jihadi ’social network’, to a practising (in both senses of the word) terrorist.