ubiwar.com

Jeremy Kahn in Newsweek, War is the Answer: Sri Lanka’s leaders are testing a dangerous theory: that the best way to end a civil war is by winning it.

That’s not quite what Kahn argues at all, so boo! to the sub-editors at Newsweek for letting me down. What Kahn actually says is that although the government military and police have made significant gains over the last two years, against a relatively traditional Maoist-style insurgency, the LTTE is still a potent adversary. President Rajapaksa faces increasing political opposition within his own ranks, as well as an inflationary economy, external debt problems, and a general public tiring of the war.

Achieving [military] victory is still possible, analysts say. “If somehow [the government] can kill Prabhakaran, that would change the picture dramatically,” says one senior analyst for a Western NGO in Colombo. Barring that, if the Army can deliver a few significant victories before January, it may buy Rajapaksa enough good will among the Sinhalese to allow him to continue the fight. For that reason, security experts expect another major push before the rainy season begins in June.

But the best chance for peace, analysts agree, involves combining the military campaign with a political strategy to empower moderate Tamil politicians and deprive the LTTE of support. Most Tamils on the island oppose the Tigers’ calls for independence, though they do want more autonomy. Under a 1987 accord brokered by India, Sri Lanka passed a constitutional amendment that was supposed to transfer some powers to the provinces. But the Tigers refused to disarm as called for under the accord, and the amendment was never implemented in Tamil areas.

Seems eminently sensible, and fits the bill of a rounded COIN approach (if implemented) to the Sri Lankan situation. Kahn concludes:

Without a more serious effort to redress discrimination, however, many international commentators believe the military campaign can’t succeed. The fighting alone “cannot be the whole solution, because that alone won’t address the grievances of the minority community,” says Susan Hayward of the United States Institute of Peace in Washington. Unfortunately, Rajapaksa, who is surrounded by Sinhalese hardliners, has shown little interest in truly reaching out to the Tamils. Which means that while there may well be a military solution to Sri Lanka’s civil war, it probably isn’t this one.

Doesn’t quite suit the headline, methinks. Kahn presumably grasps the requirements of successful COIN, but his editors obviously do not.